Monday, June 27, 2011

1512 Week 3

I am leaving this week a bit frustrated. I find probabilities to be rather confusing. It leads me to ask one question. Do elementary students really do these problems? I am thinking it must be geared more towards middle school. Then again maybe I am just trying to make myself feel better for not getting it.

Now, don't get my wrong. I get the importance of probabilities. I think they are an everyday tool, I just think in my head there must be an easier way. I think this is part of my problem though. There isn't a formula you "always" use. It is based on the question. Does it or doesn't it? Regardless, I need more practice and probably should have put in some extra time to try to gain a better understanding of it. And for the students that get this: KUDOS to you!

Since I do like formulas, I am going to focus on one. The definition of odds.

Odds in favor: A =   P(A)     
                               1- P(A)

Odds against: A = 1- P(A)

These formulas are easy to use and if only they applied to most probability questions, we would be in business.

I found this video on youtube that is called the Monty Hall Problem and discusses the probability of opening a door to win a car and what your strategy should be. It gives the mathematical reasoning behind the choice. It's interesting.

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